Semi curse of the hosts (Fat Eck’s EURO 2004 Diary, NON MATCH-DAY 1)

Yup, the hosts with the mosts are once again gonnae go crashing and burning at the Last Four stage of a major competition. Yes indeed. Take it from me.

In England 66 they was robbed by two Bobby Charlton pile-drivers in the Wembley match which saw Eusebio convert a late penalty (Jack Charlton handling on the line) en route to becoming top scorer for the tournament and something of a God.

At France in 1984 they were one half of probably the greatest European Championship game of them all. Tigana beating the entire 21 other men on the pitch before squaring to Platini to score the extra-time winner at the Stade Velodrome, Marseilles in a 3-2 classic (Interestlingly enough, the other four goals were shared between the opposite left backs that night. Two goals each for the men wearing number 3 … mmmmm. Someone MUST care about that fact.)

EURO 2000 and, of course, there was that total rammy in the Heysel - sorry - King Boudoin stadium in Brussels as France once again turned the Potuguese boys over. This time a late penalty award saw Zinedine Zidane score the golden goal and the entire Portuguese team and bench seemed to be yellow carded three times each .. or something. Refs and linesmen were jostled/assualted but 4th official, one Mr Shug Dallas, barely batted an eye-ilid: This was nothing compared to Parkhead on 2nd May 1999.

And on Wednesday of this week, we await another memorable night of end-to-end drama as The Little General brings his new Penalty Kings from the Netherlands into the heart of Portugese footballing passion: The Estdio Da Luz.

Yer fat editor thinks the Dutch boys will do it by 3 to 2 ater extra-time (Nothing like being specific with your predictions, eh! I also think Pierre van Hooidjdonk’s left nostril will be inflamed by one extra millimetre after a night of heavy picking: 11/2, William Hills, 5/1 Corals) and, apart from my usual sage-like qualities, my forecast is aided by a startlingly obvious trend in the eternal quest for the Henri Delaunay trophy:

2000: Hosts, (Belgium and) HOLLAND - Holland done by Italy in the SEMI-FINAL.

1996: Hosts: ENGLAND - England done by Germany in the SEMI-FINAL.

1992: Hosts: SWEDEN - Sweden done by Germnay in the, you guessed it, SEMI-FINAL

1988: Hosts: West Germany: West germany done by Holland in the first round group stage … nah - only joking ! - in the Volkparkstadion, Hamburg semi-fekin-final!!

1984: Hosts France. Winners France … okay but hat’s just the exception which proves the rule, coz look:

1980: Hosts: Italy - nae seni-finals but the Azzuri lost the 3/4th place play-off so make up yer ain mind.

1976: Hosts: Yugoslavia - duly done by West Germany in the semis.

1972: Hosts: Belgium - papped oot in Antwerp by two Gerdy Muller goals to one at the SEMI FINAL stage.

1968 and 1964, the hosts, Italy and Spain respectively, actually won the tournament and in the first ever European Championships (Or Eurpean Nations Cup), in France in 1960, Yugoslavia won a hum-dinger against France in the good old SEMI FINALS!

So, there ye go, in the eleven European Championships to be staged before the one we’re all currently enjoying, the poor buggers who go to all the expense of hosting the damn thing get papped oot at the last four stage EIGHT TIMES. Fair enough, before 1980 the “Finals” only consisted of four teams but ye see my point. There is something of a pattern emerging.

Mind you - I’ve just realised - on the three occasions when the host hasn’t drooped out in the penultimate match, they’ve actually gone on to win it. So, apart from highlighting poor old Belgium as the worst ever home-soil performers in Euro championship finals history (didn’t do even as well as Co-hosts Hol,and in 2000. The Red Devils got papped oot in the Group stage), I seem to have stumbled on a fail-safe metohd of deducing what’ll happen at Benfica’s stadium on Wednesday night: Portugal will either WIN … OR … they’ll LOSE.

Stick with me, troops! I’ll see ye awright for beating the bokies. No fear. Yes, siree! S’all about studying the form … oh aye … understand the past and ye’ll can forecast the future … absolutely…